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Posts by "ashraf laidi"
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147 Posts by Anonymous "ashraf laidi":
"We believe that despite
best efforts by policy makers to ensure an orderly outcome, a Greek
default scenario would inevitably be highly destabilizing," Moody's
said. "Counterparties, including other banks, may become risk-averse and
withdraw funds where there is even a slight concern about exposure to
Greece or other peripheral EU sovereigns. This can lead to a vicious
cycle whereby banks considered weak lose access to market funding and
possibly face deposit withdrawals, pressuring liquidity," the ratings
agency added. Moody's also said that in the event of a default,
governments would probably move to recapitalise banks. But it also
warned that any plans that involved creditors sharing the cost of bank
support could lead to a loss of investor confidence.
RECENT EURO BOUNCE above $1.4120 attributed to "talk of M&A linked interest, the
DuPont/Danisco deal" - MNI FX Bullets
Ashraf
Thanks for your ongoing comments and feedback as always.
Regarding the navigation from premium and non-premium section, I believe the problem of inconvenience is related to the fact that you get timed out fairly faster from the paid section faster than months ago.. This is due to the increasing demands on the site. We will overhaul the skeleton of the website later this Spring to overcome this problem.
As for not sending out an email about the new Premium product, we have YET TO send this out but the delay has been due to different grouping of our mailing lists. You are right to not the strangeness of not sending an email. We have our reasons and we will do so soon.
You should NOT have any problem using our archives to look for charts. All IMTs and Articles are archived for the past 3 years (this website was born on the week Lehman died). You can also go tohttp://chart.ly/users/alaidi to see prev charts.
Last but not least, the topic of susbscribers feeling theyre are paying for nonsubscribers, that is a good point. But allow me to remind you of the following:
i) I have reduced my trading calls on @alaidi,
ii As for @alaidiPremiumFX, we will begin blocking access to those followers (because @alaidiPremiumFX is private feed) in the few weeks to come and allow access only to those who pay for the Intermarket Insights part of the Premium Package.
This process is not simple and will take time.
iii) the analysis on the Premium page is more trading and analysis oriented than the IMTs, which focus on giving previews and reviews.
I will, however, continue to provide trading ideas on@alaidi, albeit not at the same frequency as before the Premium was created.
Once again, I appreciate your feedback & constructive criticism. I welcome more of it from all readers. Some people are not happy that I am not around as much as on Twitter ie providing trading ideas and analysis for free as was the case over the past 13 years.
Bear in mind that we are in the embryonic stage of this Premium stage of the website and there is plenty of work to be done. Thanks for your patience.
Ashraf
Here is what I said in my piece yesterday, which sums it up succinctly for now.
The contrasting monetary policy picture involving a tighter ECB/BoE/RBA relative to the Feds continued quantitative easing remains the main driver to the USDs downfall. Any periodic reverberations regarding peripheral Eurozone debt concerns, equity market pullbacks disappointing earnings have proven -- and will likely to continue proving an opportunity buy the dips in EURUSD, AUDUSD, gold and silver.
But I wouldnt agree with you about uninterrupted USD declines for another 3-6 months. I think June-July should see some kind of USD correction...the question is: will it be a rebound of more than 5?
Ashraf
http://bit.ly/lt6f3m
Ashraf
That title should say "Why EURUSD will reach $1.49" Instead of "WHy will reach new highs"
http://bit.ly/eu8ISQ
Ashraf
from MNI FX Bullets
[10:09 EDT 04/21]
US TSYS/TIPS: Barclays Capital TIPS analyst Mike Pond noted today, the
Treasury is scheduled to auction $14bn in TII April 2016s at
11:30AM. He adds that "given the negative real yields in this sector, we
expect the Treasury to floor the coupon on the issue at 0.125%, with the
dollar price trading at premium to par." He noted that "while
Wednesday's lack of breakeven widening can be viewed as a concession for
the TIPS market ahead of the auction, we still think the auction event
may come in with a tail, as the premium dollar price may discourage
investors from participating in the auction process." Thus he adds that
"post auction, we like being long the sector, as we continue to see
upside risks to near-term headline inflation. For a better breakeven
entry, we recommend selling OTM 5-year CPI caps."
BULLET: US TSYS/AUCTIONS: One dealing desk says for the 5Y
Apr 21 / 09:44 EDT
Send to friend
US TSYS/AUCTIONS: One dealing desk says for the 5Y TIPS auction, 5Y
breakevens look fairly cheap on the curve, noting th at the 5Y/10Y box
has steepened into the high 20s. Cheap valuations coupled with the fact
its carry remains attractive to July should draw in real money. Other
pluses include its smaller duration. Negatives include its rather large
size, risk associated with the long holiday weekend and the shortened
session, which does not bode well for an auction set up.
Ashraf
Ashraf
That meeting characterized policy as mildly restrictive but appropriate and the overall statement was barely changed from the previous meeting. The RBA last hiked in November and the market is not pricing in any chance of a hike at the May 3 meeting. Further RBA commentary on the Japanese disaster could be market-moving at the expense of the AUDUSD, AUDJPY and even AUDNZD. The RBA statement said they expected the broader impact to be limited but if the minutes highlight further risks, AUD could come under pressure. Commentary on AUD strength will also be key. If policymakers hint that a high AUD rate will do the work of rate hikes, we could see pressure on AUD. Hawkish talk or strong concerns from commodity inflation could boost AUD.
From AB - AshrafLaidi.com Staff
Ashraf
AUSTRALIA: Westpac sees China's Sunday rate rise announcement curbing risk
sentiment initially but believes Aussie's upward momentum remains intact.
If pair breaks below 1.0550, it would warn of deeper move to 1.0450. In
case of New Zealand dollar, a move below 0.7975 would only mean delay to a
rise to the 0.8213 record high, says Westpac. Both currencies opened just
off overnight levels with Aussie at 1.0563 and NZD at 0.7997.
Ashraf